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Oxford University Study Finds Downscaling of Vehicle Size and Weight the Best Way to Reduce Transport GHG Emissions in the Short Term
jaanuar 30, 2010 · Lisa kommentaar

An new study from the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at Oxford University suggests that best way to reduce transport greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the short term is a “drastic downscaling of both size and weight” of conventional gasoline and diesel cars.

The study editor Sir David King (former Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government) and lead author Dr. Oliver Inderwildi urge the government to impose higher taxes on drivers of large, inefficient vehicles and reinvest the money in better public transport and measures to get more people cycling and walking.

“The most significant impact that can be made in reducing CO2 emissions from automobiles in the coming decades is reducing the average weight and engine size of vehicles.”
—Future of Mobility Roadmap

The report “Future of Mobility Roadmap” assesses the potential for low carbon transport on land, by air and sea. Among its findings for land transport—the largest contributor to the transport sector’s greenhouse gas emissions—are:

* In the short-term, turbocharging and downscaling in combination with weight reduction of current vehicle technology offer a significant opportunity for reductions.
* In the medium-term, hybrid systems, those using internal combustion engines and regenerative electric systems such as the Toyota Prius, offer significant savings and will help the evolution to a purely electric drivetrain.
* While purely electric vehicles are not zero emission vehicles due to electricity and hydrogen generation they will be important low carbon transport in the long term.
* Plug-in electric vehicles are restricted by battery technology, fuel cell systems are limited by power density of the unit and both systems are challenged by limited rare material availability.
* First generation biofuels, those derived from food stocks, have proved the viability of such fuels, but remain a localized solution, as in Brazil.
* Second generation biofuels synthesized from inedible cellulosic biomass have the potential to be true low carbon fuels but are constrained by land availability.
* Algae-based fuel show promise as they exclude land use and food security issues, but they require a mass production break through to be viable.
* Both electric and diesel rail systems have low operating emissions but high embedded infrastructural costs and lack route flexibility.

In the short-term a significant impact that can be made in reducing CO2 emissions from automobiles by blunt down-scaling the physical vehicle size and engine capacity. In the medium-term, alternative powertrain technologies such as HEVs and PHEVs, by combining the advantages of ICEVs and battery electric vehicle (BEV), offer perhaps the best interim step. In the long-term it is envisaged that all electric drive vehicles will be the man source of transportation. These can be split into two distinct groups, fuel cell vehicles (FCV) and BEV.

…As with technology, economic policies also have an important role to play in reducing GHG emissions from transport. An efficient mobility model for the future must take into account the true costs of transport and its regulatory framework needs to create incentives for people to make sustainable transport choices. In order to achieve this economic instruments can be used to correct road transport externalities such as environmental and road damage, accidents, congestion, and oil dependence. CAC [command and control] policies and incentive-based policies can be used to reduce the negative impact of transport externalities. Physical policies, soft policies, and knowledge policies can be used in combination in an integrated framework with taxes and permits in order to move towards a sustainable transport model.
—Future of Mobility Roadmap

Myth Busting
# The report identifies a number of myths surrounding low-carbon road transport: “Diesel cars are highly polluting.”
# “We should just use fuel cells.”
# “Electric vehicles are zero-emission.”
# “Corn ethanol is an environmentally friendly fuel.”
# “Biofuels compete with food sources.”
# “Biofuels will save the day.”
# “Policy X is the only solution.”

Air. For the air sector, the report finds that technical changes, such as improvements to propulsions systems and reduction to aerodynamic drag could reduce emissions by up to 50%, in the short term. However, the rate of uptake of new technologies is restricted by fleet lifetimes.

Longer term developments require change to the current aircraft architecture from “tube and wing” to “flying wing” systems, offering 32% reduction in GHG through drag reduction alone. Biofuels and operational improvements could also reduce the GHG emissions from aviation.

Sea. Sea or maritime transportation accounts for 3% of global GHG emissions while transporting 70% of the world’s cargo by volume, leading to the lowest emission per tonne kilometer of all modes discussed in the report. Through both technical and operational change, reductions of up to 75% of GHG emission are possible in the medium to long term, the authors conclude.

Behavioral Change. The report throughout emphasizes the need for behavioral change to achieve low carbon transport:

* Either top-down or bottom-up polices are required.
* Top-down methods include command and control polices, such as regulation and incentive based polices, such as taxes and charges.
* Top-down methods are not efficient from an economical perspective but are when drastic changes in activity are required.
* Bottom up methods or complementary polices can be used in combination with top down methods.
* Complementary polices fall into one of three broad categories: physical polices, soft polices and knowledge polices.
* Bottom-up methods are economically efficient but do not always achieve their full potential for change.

The study warns that action must be taken immediately to have any impact on climate change because of the long lifetime of transport fleets and subsequent delays in technological impact.

Resources

* Future of Mobility Roadmap

Green Car Congress

=> Oxford University Study Finds Downscaling of Vehicle Size and Weight the Best Way to Reduce Transport GHG Emissions in the Short Term.

Rubriigid: Analüüsid
Sildistatud: transpordi analüüs
Study wars: plug-in vehicles can’t be beat, IHS expects 20 percent market share in 2030
jaanuar 29, 2010 · Lisa kommentaar

Volvo C30 DrivE electric vehicle – Click above for high-res image gallery

The last time we heard from IHS Global Insight’s Philip Gott, he was talking about the overall sustainability of transportation. Now, Gott has lead a study on electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates that paints a positive picture about EVs based on their business case. How positive? How about 20 percent market penetration by 2030? Sure, there are a lot of voices around giving the negative aspects of EVs (Toyota, we’re looking at you), but the IHS study found that the inherent benefits of electric drive – quiet operation, lowered emissions and ability to accept energy from a variety of energy sources – suggests they will reach that 1-in-5 rate in two decades.

The challenges for EVs that the study found are items we’ve heard before: “the development of powerful, long-lasting batteries and ready access to a reliable power grid for recharging.” Who knows where things will be in 2030? IHS says they do but don’t let this study, called the Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: The Definitive Assessment of the Business Case, be your only guide. Gott has scaled back his predictions before, like with the number of hybrids in the U.S. in 2025.

AutoblogGreen

=> Study wars: plug-in vehicles can’t be beat, IHS expects 20 percent market share in 2030.

Rubriigid: Analüüsid
Sildistatud: IHS
DC 2010: NRDC gives us some numbers to crunch about why tough standards are a good thing
jaanuar 28, 2010 · Lisa kommentaar

Among the gleaming vehicles on the Washington Auto Show floor, there are some policy and discussion sessions happening as well as part of the EDTA Conference. We thought a quick run through a presentation by Roland Hwang, the transportation program director for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), would be a good thing for our more detailed-oriented readers to delve into. Technically delivered as part of the EDTA/SAEJoint Opening Session, Hwang’s presentation gets into the numbers (as collected and analyzed by the NRDC) and makes the case that setting strong long-term standards is actually good for auto industry.

Take, for example, the chart above (full size), which shows what’s possible in tank-to-wheel emissions in 25 years for a lot of gasoline alternatives. Compared to today’s average standard gasoline engine, which requires 8.9 liters of gasoline to go 100 kilometers, a plug-in hybrid that can go 30 miles on electric power would require 2.2 l/100 km (equivalent). A fuel cell vehicle would need 2.3 liters (equivalent) and a pure electric would need 1.7 liters. Follow us past the jump for more.

AutoblogGreen

=> DC 2010: NRDC gives us some numbers to crunch about why tough standards are a good thing.

Rubriigid: Analüüsid
Sildistatud: Efektiivsus
New York City early adopter demand to far outstrip electric vehicle supply
jaanuar 25, 2010 · Lisa kommentaar


How much does learning about an electric vehicle (EV) change the chance that someone will want to buy an EV? According to a study conducted for the City of New York’s comprehensive sustainability plan calledPlaNYC, by 21 percent. Of course, they also found that 18 percent of the population wanted an EV less after learning more about them. Besides EVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), PlaNYC looked at how moving more people onto the city’s money-saving public transportation and bicycles and getting more people to walk affect the city’s air quality. The city wants to understand these calculations because there is a goal in place to drop NYC’s greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent from 2005 levels in 2030. Since transportation accounts for so much of these emissions, figuring out the impact of plug-in vehicles – and all of the other options people have to get around – is a huge and important task. Here’s how plug-in vehicles might play a role:

For those New Yorkers that will continue to rely on the automobile for their mobility needs, these electric vehicles can offer an improvement over gasoline vehicles in reducing both urban pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, helping to meet the City’s PlaNYC targets. And, although they are currently more expensive to purchase than gasoline-powered vehicles, electric vehicles offer the potential to save drivers significant sums of money over time, in fuel and maintenance savings – by some estimates, electric vehicles may be 40% to 70% cheaper to operate, depending on gasoline prices and how far a driver travels each year.

Also, this:

Most New Yorkers do not own a car, and those who do may not drive them as far, or as frequently, as in other parts of the country. In addition, many New Yorkers park their cars on the street or in commercial garages. As a result, it is unclear who the target market for the first EVs would be in New York City, how many EVs would be purchased, what the key factors and barriers would be for early adoption, and how EV usage would impact our electrical grid. It is also not clear what incentives – infrastructure investments, subsi- dies, or other actions – may be needed to promote EVs.

Finally:

There is a potentially large group of early adopters willing to change behavior to accommodate electric vehicles. A distinct population of “early adopters” is very positive about electric vehicles and willing to change habits to adapt to the requirements of electric vehicles. This may include, for example, switching from an on-street parking space to one in a local parking garage to access necessary charging infrastructure. The research also has found that New Yorkers’ attitudes, rather than their driving or parking behaviors, are strong indications of their willingness to adopt electric vehicles. … The research projects that, by 2015, up to 14-16% of all new vehicles purchased by New Yorkers could be electric vehicles. Despite this strong interest from early adopters, only limited numbers and types of electric vehicles are expected to be offered in the New York region to meet projected demand.

So, automakers, get thee some EVs to NYC. More details can be had by downloading the PDF. Thanks to lne937s for the tip!

AutoblogGreen

=> New York City early adopter demand to far outstrip electric vehicle supply.

Rubriigid: Analüüsid
Sildistatud: USA
IHS Global Insight Report Projects That Plugged-in Vehicles Could Capture 20% of the Global Market by 2030
jaanuar 22, 2010 · Lisa kommentaar

Plug-in electric vehicles—plug-in hybrids and full battery-powered—will represent nearly 20% of the global market for light vehicles in 2030, according to findings in a study on the business case for Plugged-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) by automotive industry analysts at IHS Global Insight.

The IHS Global Insight white paper, “Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles: The Definitive Assessment of the Business Case,” forecasts an 8.6% market share for plug-in hybrids and a 9.9% share for battery-electrics.

The advantages of electric vehicles are numerous—the multiplicity of energy sources, reduced emissions, reduced noise, the possibility of reduced operating costs—but so too are the challenges.

—Philip Gott, director of Automotive Science and Technology in IHS Global Insight’s Automotive Services Group

Green Car Congress

=> IHS Global Insight Report Projects That Plugged-in Vehicles Could Capture 20% of the Global Market by 2030.

Rubriigid: Analüüsid
Sildistatud: Turuanalüüs
Frost & Sullivan: Europe Shifting to a CO2-based Vehicle Taxation Regime
jaanuar 21, 2010 · Lisa kommentaar
London, United Kingdom, 01/18/2010 - Europe shifts steadily toward a carbon dioxide (CO2)-based vehicle taxation regime and vehicle manufacturers (VMs) hasten to comply with stringent EU CO2 norms (average fleet emissions less than 130g/km by 2015).



As Europe shifts steadily toward a carbon dioxide (CO2)-based vehicle taxation regime and vehicle manufacturers hasten to comply with stringent EU CO2 norms (average fleet emissions less than 130g/km by 2015), demand for low-CO2 cars is skyrocketing. As a result, every European VM is racing towards capturing a share of this opportunity.

New analysis from Frost & Sullivan (automotive.frost.com), Implementation Roadmap of CO2 Tax Banding in European Countries and Impact Analysis on Powertrain and Green Technology Adoption, finds that about 80 per cent of the European vehicle sales is expected to be in the less than 150g/km CO2 emission band by 2015. The countries covered in this research service are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

“By 2015, the average car in Europe will be 5 per cent lighter, with 30 per cent lower CO2 emissions,” says Frost & Sullivan Programme Manager Vigneshwaran Chandran. “Downsizing, gasoline direct injection (GDI), and start-stop will be the key technologies helping original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) achieve emission targets by 2015.”

About 8-10 million cars are expected to be in the less than 120g/km CO2 emission band in Europe by 2015 – a significantly attractive market opportunity for both volume and premium manufacturers.

While VMs invest heavily in the development of new low-CO2 models and engine variants, it is challenging to pass on these costs on to the customer, risking the OEMs’ profitability.

“Offsetting the high development costs for green technologies and time for returns-on-investment on certain expensive developments such as gasoline direct injection and hybridisation will be a key commercial challenge for automakers,” explains fellow analyst Hariher Balasubramanian.

Subsequently, automakers will likely employ different strategies for emission reduction, with mass manufacturers adopting moderate downsizing and technologies like variable valve train (VVT) and GDI. On the other hand, premium automakers will invest significantly on aggressive engine downsizing by more than 20 per cent, combined with full hybridization.

“Premium manufacturers such as Daimler and BMW are likely to use a combination of electric vehicles, hybridization, and downsizing to achieve their 2015 CO2 emission target of 130g/km, while volume manufacturers will use a mix of green technologies such as GDI, VVT and start-stop systems,” concludes Balasubramanian.

About Frost & Sullivan
Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, enables clients to accelerate growth and achieve best-in-class positions in growth, innovation and leadership. The company’s Growth Partnership Service provides the CEO and the CEO’s Growth Team with disciplined research and best-practice models to drive the generation, evaluation, and implementation of powerful growth strategies. Frost & Sullivan leverages over 45 years of experience in partnering with Global 1000 companies, emerging businesses and the investment community from 40 offices on six continents.

via http://www.newswiretoday.com/news/63432/

Rubriigid: Analüüsid
Sildistatud: CO2, Euro
US Hybrid sales -8%, compared to -21% overall
jaanuar 20, 2010 · Lisa kommentaar

How did hybrids manage to maintain a decent sales performance in 2009, when they are more expensive than comparable conventional models, and gas prices were modest? The answer is new product introductions, including the Ford Fusion Hybrid, Honda Insight, andLexus HS250h.
U.S. hybrid market historical sales (1999 – 2009)

United States Yearly Sales

via http://www.hybridcars.com/hybrid-sales-dashboard/december-2009-dashboard.html

Rubriigid: Analüüsid
Sildistatud: Hübriidid, Turuanalüüs
Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in Australia Today
jaanuar 18, 2010 · Lisa kommentaar

An AECOM-led study of plug-in electric vehicle economics for the New South Wales, Australia government concluded that electric vehicles are economically and financially viable in the NSW market today. However, the economic and financial returns accrue over the longer term. The move towards a plug-in electric vehicle market also generates large savings in greenhouse gas and air pollution emissions.

Green Car Congress

via Study Finds EVs Economically and Financially Viable in New South Wales, Australia Market Today.

Rubriigid: Analüüsid
Sildistatud: Austraalia
Report: 16% of NYC new car sales to be EVs by 2015 – Cleantech Group
jaanuar 17, 2010 · Lisa kommentaar

Management consulting firmMcKinsey & Co. came out with new research today that suggests electric vehicles, including battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric cars, could make up as much as 16 percent of new car sales in New York City come 2015, or as many as 70,000 cars.

electric (car or vehicle) – Google News

via Report: 16% of NYC new car sales to be EVs by 2015 – Cleantech Group.

Rubriigid: Analüüsid
Sildistatud: USA
PRTM: Operational Gains Can Help Drive Li-ion Cost Reduction Exceeding 50% by 2020, with Plug-in Vehicle Adoption of 10%
jaanuar 17, 2010 · Lisa kommentaar

A series of recent reports—one from the National Research Council (NRC) (earlier post) and another from the Boston Consulting Group (earlier post)—concluded that an expected continuing high cost of lithium-ion batteries will dampen mass market adoption of plug-in vehicles.

However, Oliver Hazimeh, Director and head of the global e-Mobility Practice at PRTM, a global management consulting firm, suggests that total lithium-ion battery cost reductions exceeding 50% by 2020 are feasible without technology breakthroughs, primarily through operational gains, assuming EV adoption of approximately 10% of new vehicles sold by 2020 to support volume manufacturing. (PRTM contributed to the Electrification Roadmap released last November by the Electrification Coalition. Earlier post.)

Green Car Congress

via PRTM: Operational Gains Can Help Drive Li-ion Cost Reduction Exceeding 50% by 2020, with Plug-in Vehicle Adoption of 10%.

Rubriigid: Analüüsid
Rohelised autod on muutunud tarbija lemmikuteks
juuli 8, 2009 · Lisa kommentaar

Uuringufirma Synovate on läbiviinud rahvusvahelise uuringu autoostjate tarbijaeelistustest nö. rohelisuse skaalal. Küsitleti 13 500 inimest 18 riigis ning leiti, et 60% vastajatest eelistaks rohelist autot muude luksusautode ees. Ka siis kui raha kogus poleks tarbijavalikus peamiseks probleemiks. Sealhulgas 20% vastajatest pidas rohelist autot oma unelmaautoks.

green-car2

Märkimisväärne on veel see, et 70% hiinlastest eelistab rohelist autot võrdluses 42% USA sama näitajaga.

Ülevaate uuringust leiad Canada.com lehelt

Summary: car buyers tend to prefer green cars as their dream cars.

Rubriigid: Analüüsid
Wintergreen Research: nanotehnoloogiad muudavad akude turgu
veebruar 20, 2009 · Lisa kommentaar

Wintergreen researchi värske uurimus ennustab, et aastal 2015 peaks klientideni olema jõudnud juba 32 miljonit elektriautot.

Kuid, mis veelgi tähtsam – mitmed nanotehnoloogilised lahendused hakkavad alles nüüd jõudma elektriautode põhikomponendi – aku – tõõstuslikku arendusse.

Suurenema peaks nii akude energiamahtuvus kui vastupidavus.

Kogu turuülevaate lühikokkuvõtte leiad siit.

Veidi varem libises uudisvoost läbi teade, et Lõuna-Korea teadlased katsetasid vask-oksiidi nanostruktuure liitiumioon akude katoodidel tõstes nii akude võimsust ca poole võrra.

The Korea Times: Rechargeable Battery Power Upgraded by 50%

Rubriigid: Akutehnoloogiad · Analüüsid
Sildistatud: liitiumioon, nano

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