Elektrit saab tasuta

Recession could mean 3% fall in emissions
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In an early excerpt of its World Energy Outlook for 2009, released in the Thai capital yesterday, the Paris-based agency said this created an opportunity to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions in line with holding the increase in average global temperatures at two degrees.
IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka told a press briefing in Bangkok that the recession “gives us a chance to make real progress towards a clean energy future, but only if the right policies are put in place promptly” in the context of the forthcoming UN climate change process.

“The message is simple and stark: if the world continues on the basis of today’s energy and climate policies, the consequences of climate change will be severe. Energy is at the heart of the problem – and so must form the core of the solution,” Mr Tanaka said.

It was for this reason that the IEA had taken the “unprecedented decision” to release some of the key findings of its 2009 energy outlook with the aim of providing “a timely contribution towards [reaching] a landmark agreement in Copenhagen”.

Under the IEA’s latest scenario, which is based on capping CO2 in the atmosphere at 450 parts per million, the use of fossil fuels for power generation would peak before 2020, when energy-related emissions would be just 6 per cent higher than they were in 2007.

It envisages a reduction in emissions of 3.8 gigatonnes (gt) worldwide, of which 1.6gt of a fall would occur in OECD countries and 1gt in China alone – much more than in any other country – based on the steps being taken or considered by the Chinese government.

Apart from greater energy efficiency, the IEA’s scenario for “green growth” in the energy sector includes nuclear power and coal-fired plants involving “carbon capture and storage”, as well as renewables such as hydro and wind power, both onshore and offshore.

The biggest challenge would be to raise the estimated $10 trillion (€6.8 trillion) needed to fund this “energy revolution” over the next 20 years, Mr Tanaka said, adding that developing countries – including China – would need “substantial support” from richer nations.

In a foreword to the excerpt, UN climate chief Yvo de Boer said this was “manageable” and, although the transition would be challenging, it was “doable”.

But he added that the Copenhagen conference in December needed to produce an “ambitious result” to launch it.

Everyone stresses what Mr Tanaka called the “leading role” China would play in combating climate change, not least because it has now overtaken the United States as the world’s most prodigious emitter of greenhouse gases, including CO2.

Greenpeace International’s climate policy expert Kaisa Kosonen said the IEA’s report “confirms what we already know – that every year’s delay in climate action will significantly increase the costs and also that China is already on its way to being a leader in renewable energy”.

Calling on developed countries to adopt stronger emission-reduction targets that would “drive energy efficiency and renewables on the scale that’s needed”, Ms Kosonen said the IEA analysis showed that reaching more ambitious targets would be “easier for them now”.

China’s climate change envoy, Yu Qingtai, blamed a “lack of political will” by developed countries as “the fundamental reason for a lack of progress” at the Bangkok talks: “Are we prepared to take real action to match our words? Are we serious about our commitments?”

Referring to proposals being floated by the US, Australia and Japan for a new deal based on each country policing its own targets, he said this was like one side changing the rules in the final five minutes of a game.

“That is not a fair way of conducting negotiations,” he said.

Meanwhile, US president Barack Obama’s energy adviser Carol Browner has “clarified” her forecast that the US Senate would not pass climate change legislation in advance of Copenhagen, saying the administration was pursuing “the most aggressive timeline possible”.

Ms Browner also said progress made by the Obama administration this year in promoting clean energy investments and developing more stringent efficiency standards for cars and electrical appliances “will ensure America’s leadership on this issue is clear”.

A Greenpeace analysis found that China is ahead of the US on renewable energy targets and the fuel efficiency of new cars.

“Chinese cars have already reached the level of efficiency the US aims to achieve by 2016 under President Obama’s newly established fuel economy standards,” the analysis said.

The analysis of the differences between the US and China across a range of indices also showed that US consumers have eight times the purchasing power of their Chinese counterparts, six times as many cars and four times the level of CO2 emissions per capita.

Shipping and aviation emissions:


Emissions from aviation and shipping – excluded from the Kyoto Protocol, even though they now account for over 1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year – may form part of a deal at the Copenhagen climate conference in December.

Delegates representing both the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) are involved in high-level negotiations in Montreal with a view to putting forward proposals to the United Nations. As the fuels used by international aviation and shipping – known as “bunker fuels” – cannot be assigned to individual countries, they are not covered by Kyoto. But emissions from these sectors are rising fast and dealing with them can no longer be avoided.

According to Pete Lockley, of the World Wildlife Fund, a “global sectoral approach to get a grip on these emissions” looked promising and auctioning permits could raise as much as $30 billion (€20.4 billion) from the two sectors, creating a new carbon fund.

Mr Lockley said it was essential that this revenue would go to help developing countries adapt to the impacts of climate change as well as taking steps to reduce their own emissions, and he said EU finance ministers were currently considering this issue. “We can expect a real blitz of public relations, whatever they propose, but you’ll need to look at the substance,” he said. If it was “voluntary targets” or “carbon-neutral growth”, there would be little or no difference in their contributions to climate change.

– Frank McDonald

This article appears in the print edition of the Irish Times